How to predict the future of retail—BFCM signals
Reading the tea leaves of BFCM
Well, by now you’ve heard all of the BFCM news: record-breaking digital sales; traffic down ~50% YOY in stores; people only want to shop digital from now on; etc. While consumer habits are certainly changing, I read these signals a bit differently.
Consider that 1) we’re still in the throws of a pandemic, so even those customers who normally shop IRL are not doing so 2) discounts started in October for many brands and retailers in an effort to elongate the holiday shopping season to combat shipping issues, and 3) on Veteran’s Day (11/11) traffic returned to pre-Covid levels perhaps for the first time since this pandemic began.
To me, this indicates a strong desire for in-person shopping that is very encouraging. If this truly is the end of Black Friday in favor of an elongated, less frantic, more service-oriented holiday shopping season, I see that as a very good thing for physical retail.
Now that most order-in-time-for-Christmas deadlines have passed, I’ll be watching closely to see if this drives late holiday shoppers into stores. It might already be happening.
ICYMI
A few weeks ago, I joined my mentor and former colleague, George Poulios, on his Curiously George Podcast for a fun, and somewhat vulnerable, chat about ballet, retail leadership, and failure.
You can listen to the episode: Learning Agility in NYC with Rebekah Kondrat here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaking of the future of retail, let’s continue our chat with retail leader Bari Grossman. If you missed Part I of this interview, you can catch up here.
Want to predict the future of retail? Ask those on the frontlines.
Consumer behavior is rapidly evolving, which makes it difficult to plan for the next evolution of retail. Data has become an important filter in the decision-making process, but there’s one data source that is often overlooked—the frontline retail teams.
In the early days of the pandemic, I conducted a series of interviews with frontline retail leaders. What I learned was that they knew what was going to happen from a traffic and customer sentiment perspective one to two weeks before anyone in the headquarters office realized it. Imagine what would have changed and how businesses could have prepared with an additional two weeks’ notice. Once again, brands have another opportunity to listen to their frontline teams. For that, we will go back to my conversation with Bari Grossman to get her take.
(This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity)
Rebekah: I'm just curious, what do you think the future holds for retail?
Bari: I think we're going to see an amplification of the things that were already important in retail. Most of my background is in startups and, specifically, startups that really focused on experiential retail and service-based retail. I think that is going to be even more important. We're going to move into a space where people aren't going to go to a store unless it gives them something they can't get in any other way. And that means every part of the experience matters from start to finish, from customer service to scent, every element that they're experiencing in the store needs to be pleasant. It needs to be inviting to be inspiring. Otherwise, customers will stay home and order online where they don’t have to wear a mask.
Rebekah: And hopefully someday we won’t need to wear masks, but it might be two years.
Bari: Right. And I definitely think retail will recover, it will bounce back, but e-commerce has already been impacting retail in a major way. People like convenience, so we've got to give them a reason to come back. That reason may be different than before the pandemic. I think now we need to think about how we do activations that engage people, but don't crowd the space. How to kind of keep it moving as opposed to more stagnant customer events.
Rebekah: Yes, I see that. My last question for you is—why continue to pursue a career in retail customer service? It’s been so tough over the last several months.
Bari: I can't see myself doing anything else. I love interacting with people. I love making people happy. I found my niche in customer experience. It really felt like the right career move. Even now in the pandemic, it just makes me want to make those experiences even more special for customers. And it makes me want to connect with even more people because we are so disconnected. I went from seeing a thousand people a day to being at home quarantined with my cat. So I'm more motivated than ever to get back to connecting with people and introducing people to brands I love.
Special thanks to Bari for this interview. And to all of the founders and brand executives out there, your retail frontline teams know your customers, are passionate about your brand, and want to help it succeed. Listen to them and you just might be able to predict the future.
Rebekah is the founder of Kondrat Retail, a consultancy that builds exceptional retail experiences and scalable practices for the next era of consumer brands. Learn more here.